Contents and sources 5 sections
Key points
- September openings were 7.523 million, up 333,000 from a revised August and above the 7.16 million Econoday consensus; the BLS still described them as "little changed."
- About 104,000 of the openings gain came from state and local government excluding education, and 197,000 of the 321,000 rise in quits came from accommodation and food services.
- Layoffs and discharges fell to 1.641 million while hires rose to 5.402 million; economists cited by Reuters still describe a "low-hire, low-fire" market.
2 more points
- October payrolls are due on November 6 at 9:30 p.m. Taipei time, with Reuters' poll at 65,000 jobs; that report is a more direct test of the rate-hike debate than JOLTS.
- US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $398.6 million in net outflows on November 2, IBIT's largest one-day outflow since late June; there is no provable causal link to the labor data.
333,000 more openings, which the BLS calls little changed
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics published its September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on November 3. Openings on the last business day of September stood at 7.523 million, 333,000 above August's revised 7.19 million, and the openings rate rose from 4.3% to 4.5%. August itself was revised up by 111,000.[1]
That beat forecasts: Econoday's consensus was 7.16 million and Reuters' poll 7.1 million. Yet the first line of the BLS release says openings were "little changed." JOLTS samples roughly 21,000 establishments, and the BLS uses that wording for monthly moves that are not statistically significant. Reuters also noted that the survey has a low response rate.[1][2][4]
The gain was concentrated in a few industries
Openings in state and local government excluding education rose from 415,000 to 519,000, an increase of 104,000 and about a third of the total gain; it is the only industry the BLS singled out for an increase. Private-sector openings rose by 236,000, including 106,000 in professional and business services and 54,000 in manufacturing, while finance and insurance fell by 42,000.[1]
Quits rose from 3.044 million to 3.365 million, up 321,000, and accommodation and food services alone added 197,000, about 60% of the increase. Hires in that industry also rose by 158,000. Our read is that this looks more like faster turnover in restaurants and hotels than proof that workers across the economy feel more confident about switching jobs.[1]
Layoffs and hiring moved only slightly
Layoffs and discharges fell by 127,000 to 1.641 million, a rate of 1.0%, while hires rose by 131,000 to 5.402 million, a rate of 3.4%. The BLS called both of those little changed, while it said quits increased. CNBC noted that quits were the highest since March 2025 and layoffs the lowest over the same period.[1][3]
Economists cited by Reuters still describe a "low-hire, low-fire" labor market in which companies neither add nor cut many workers. September payrolls grew by only 29,000. Read alongside the rise in openings, employers are posting more vacancies than they are actually filling.[4]
What this means for rates
On October 28 the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. The statement said inflation "remains elevated" and that job gains have kept pace with the workforce.[5]
In our view, higher openings and fewer layoffs take away one argument, a weakening labor market, from those who would rather not hike. But with a third of the gain coming from local government and the BLS calling the change little, this release alone is not enough to shift the picture. The more direct test is the October jobs report, due November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (9:30 p.m. Taipei time). Reuters' poll expects 65,000 new jobs and an unchanged 4.2% unemployment rate.[6][4]
On the bitcoin side
Coinbase quoted bitcoin at about $77,497 when we checked at 00:13 Taipei time on November 4. Farside Investors data show US spot bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $398.6 million on November 2, including $405.3 million from IBIT, its largest one-day outflow since June 26 ($444.5 million). Summing the same data, the 22 trading days of October produced net outflows of about $516 million.[8][7]
Farside had not yet posted November 3 figures when this was written. There is no provable causal link between that outflow and JOLTS: CoinDesk on the same day cited withdrawals after the Binance security incident and the US midterm elections as pressures. Labor data mainly reach bitcoin through rate expectations, so we will read Friday's payrolls together with ETF flows over the following days. This article is not investment advice.[7][9]
Sources & further reading
(9)
When checking a claim, compare the source date, measurement period and conditions. Some linked pages change over time.
- BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey News Release, September 2026 (USDL-26-1630, archived) (opens in a new tab)
- Econoday via CME Group: US JOLTS, September 2026 consensus and actual (opens in a new tab)
- CNBC: Job openings posted big September gain in positive sign for labor market ahead of payrolls report (opens in a new tab)
- Reuters via Investing.com: US job openings increase sharply in September (opens in a new tab)
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (October 28, 2026) (opens in a new tab)
- BLS: Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation (opens in a new tab)
- Farside Investors: Bitcoin ETF Flow, all data (US$m), observed through the 2 Nov 2026 session (opens in a new tab)
- Coinbase API: BTC-USD spot price (queried 2026-11-04 00:13 Asia/Taipei) (opens in a new tab)
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin steadies after dip to $76,300 as ETF outflows and midterm elections weigh on crypto (opens in a new tab)
For information and education, not investment advice. Crypto assets are volatile. Verify independently.
